The 5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2016 – 2030 – Technologies, Applications, Verticals, Strategies & Forecasts

 Table of Contents

1 Chapter 1: Introduction 13
1.1 Executive Summary 13
1.2 Topics Covered 14
1.3 Forecast Segmentation 15
1.4 Key Questions Answered 16
1.5 Key Findings 17
1.6 Methodology 18
1.7 Target Audience 19
1.8 Companies & Organizations Mentioned 20

2 Chapter 2: The Evolving 5G Ecosystem 23
2.1 What is 5G? 23
2.2 5G Requirements 23
2.2.1 Data Volume 24
2.2.2 Throughput 24
2.2.3 Response Time & Latency 24
2.2.4 Device Density 24
2.2.5 Availability & Coverage 24
2.2.6 Battery Life 25
2.2.7 Energy Saving & Cost Reduction 25
2.3 5G Market Drivers 26
2.3.1 Why the Need for a 5G Standard? 26
2.3.2 Improving Spectrum Utilization 26
2.3.3 Advances in Air Interface Transmission Schemes 26
2.3.4 Gigabit Wireless Connectivity: Supporting Future Services 27
2.3.5 Moving Towards the IoT (Internet of Things): Increasing Device Density 27
2.3.6 Towards a Flatter Network Architecture 27
2.4 Challenges & Inhibitors to 5G 28
2.4.1 Skepticism 28
2.4.2 Standardization Challenges: Too Many Stakeholders 28
2.4.3 Spectrum Regulation & Complexities 28
2.4.4 Massive MIMO, Beamforming & Antenna Technology Issues 29
2.4.5 Higher Frequencies Mean New Infrastructure 29
2.4.6 Complex Performance Requirements 30
2.4.7 Energy Efficiency & Technology Scaling 30
2.5 5G Applications & Use Cases 31
2.5.1 Extreme Bandwidth Applications: Video, Internet Gaming & Augmented Reality 31
2.5.2 MTC/M2M, IoT & Ubiquitous Communications 31
2.5.2.1 Short-burst Traffic 32
2.5.3 Vertical Industries & Safety Critical Domains 32
2.5.3.1 Automotive 32
2.5.3.2 Energy & Smart Grids 33
2.5.3.3 Transport & Logistics 33
2.5.3.4 Healthcare 33
2.5.3.5 Smart Cities 33
2.5.3.6 Public Safety 34
2.5.3.7 Fitness & Sports 34

3 Chapter 3: Enabling Technologies for 5G 35
3.1 Key Technologies & Concepts 35
3.1.1 Air Interface: Waveform Options 35
3.1.2 Millimeter Wave Radio Access 36
3.1.3 Massive MIMO 37
3.1.4 Phased Array Antennas 37
3.1.5 Beamforming 38
3.1.6 D2D (Device to Device) Communications 39
3.1.7 Self-Backhauling & Mesh Networking 39
3.1.8 Cognitive Radio & Spectrum Sensing 40
3.1.9 Unlicensed Spectrum Usage 40
3.1.10 LSA (Licensed Shared Access) 40
3.1.11 Spectrum Aggregation 41
3.1.12 Integration of VLC (Visible Light Communication) 42
3.2 Complimentary Technologies 43
3.2.1 NFV & SDN 43
3.2.2 HetNet & C-RAN Architecture 45
3.2.3 Cloud RAN 46
3.2.4 MEC (Mobile Edge Computing) 48
3.2.5 Drones & Satellites 48
3.2.5.1 Satellite Integration in 5G Networks 48
3.2.5.2 Google and Facebook’s Drone Ambitions 49
3.2.5.3 Interest from Mobile Operators 49

4 Chapter 4: 5G Investments & Future Forecast 50
4.1 How Much is Being Invested in 5G R&D? 50
4.2 R&D Investments by Technology 51
4.2.1 New Waveforms & Millimeter Wave Radio Access 52
4.2.2 MIMO, Beamforming & Antenna Technologies 53
4.2.3 Interference & Spectrum Management 54
4.2.4 C-RAN, Virtualization & Other Technologies 55
4.3 Global Outlook for 5G Infrastructure 56
4.3.1 Segmentation by Submarket 56
4.3.2 Distributed Macrocell Base Stations 57
4.3.3 Small Cells 58
4.3.4 RRHs (Remote Radio Heads) 59
4.3.5 C-RAN BBUs (Baseband Units) 60
4.3.6 Mobile Core 61
4.3.7 Fronthaul & Backhaul Networking 61
4.3.8 Segmentation by Region 62
4.4 Global Outlook for 5G Operator Services 63
4.4.1 Subscriptions 63
4.4.2 Service Revenue 63
4.4.3 Regional Segmentation 64
4.5 Asia Pacific 65
4.5.1 Infrastructure 65
4.5.2 Subscriptions 65
4.5.3 Service Revenue 66
4.6 Eastern Europe 66
4.6.1 Infrastructure 66
4.6.2 Subscriptions 67
4.6.3 Service Revenue 67
4.7 Latin & Central America 68
4.7.1 Infrastructure 68
4.7.2 Subscriptions 68
4.7.3 Service Revenue 69
4.8 Middle East & Africa 69
4.8.1 Infrastructure 69
4.8.2 Subscriptions 70
4.8.3 Service Revenue 70
4.9 North America 71
4.9.1 Infrastructure 71
4.9.2 Subscriptions 71
4.9.3 Service Revenue 72
4.10 Western Europe 72
4.10.1 Infrastructure 72
4.10.2 Subscriptions 73
4.10.3 Service Revenue 73

5 Chapter 5: Mobile Operator Commitments & 5G Spectrum Assessment 74
5.1 Mobile Operator Commitments 74
5.1.1 Japan, South Korea & Asia 74
5.1.2 Europe 75
5.1.3 North America 75
5.1.4 Rest of the World 76
5.1.5 Operator Case Studies 77
5.1.5.1 NTT DoCoMo 77
5.1.5.2 SK Telecom 79
5.2 Spectrum Options for 5G 81
5.2.1 Sub-1 GHz 81
5.2.2 1-6 GHz 82
5.2.2.1 3-4 GHz 82
5.2.2.2 5 GHz 82
5.2.3 Above 6 GHz 82
5.2.3.1 15 GHz 82
5.2.3.2 24-30 GHz 82
5.2.3.3 30-60 GHz 83
5.2.3.4 60, 70 & 80 GHz 83
5.2.4 Higher Bands 83

6 Chapter 6: 5G Standardization & Research Initiatives 84
6.1 ITU (International Telecommunication Union) 84
6.1.1 IMT-2020 84
6.1.2 Spectrum Allocation 86
6.2 3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project) 86
6.2.1 Phased Standardization Approach 86
6.2.2 R&D Efforts 87
6.3 ETSI (European Telecommunications Standards Institute) 87
6.3.1 ISGs (Industry Specification Groups) for Enabling Technologies 88
6.4 GSMA 88
6.4.1 Defining 5G 89
6.4.2 Spectrum Policy Position 89
6.5 NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Networks) Alliance 89
6.5.1 5G Work Program 89
6.6 5G Americas 91
6.6.1 5G Advocacy Efforts 91
6.7 WWRF (World Wireless Research Forum) 91
6.7.1 New Working Groups for 5G 91
6.8 IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) 92
6.8.1 5G Advocacy Efforts 92
6.9 Small Cell Forum 93
6.9.1 Mapping 5G Requirements for Small Cells 93
6.10 CableLabs 93
6.10.1 Research on High Capacity Millimeter Wave Small Cells 93
6.11 European Commission Initiatives 95
6.11.1 5G PPP (5G Infrastructure Public Private Partnership) 95
6.11.1.1 5G NORMA 97
6.11.1.2 METIS-II 97
6.11.1.3 mmMAGIC 98
6.11.1.4 FANTASTIC-5G 99
6.11.1.5 Flex5Gware 99
6.11.1.6 5G-XHaul 100
6.11.1.7 5G-Crosshaul 101
6.11.1.8 Other Projects 102
6.11.2 FP7 Projects 104
6.11.2.1 METIS 104
6.11.2.2 5GNOW 104
6.11.2.3 MiWEBA 106
6.11.2.4 MiWaveS 106
6.11.2.5 Other Projects 106
6.12 National Initiatives 108
6.12.1 South Korea 108
6.12.1.1 5G Forum 108
6.12.1.2 ETRI (Electronics and Telecommunications Research) 108
6.12.2 Japan 109
6.12.2.1 ARIB 20B AH (2020 and Beyond AdHoc) 109
6.12.2.2 5GMF (Fifth Generation Mobile Communications Promotion Forum) 110
6.12.3 China 111
6.12.3.1 IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group 111
6.12.3.2 863 Research Program 111
6.12.3.3 Future Forum 112
6.12.4 Taiwan 112
6.12.4.1 TAICS (Taiwan Association of Information and Communication Standards) 112
6.12.5 USA 113
6.12.5.1 NSF (National Science Foundation) 113
6.12.5.2 NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) 113
6.12.5.3 FCC (Federal Communications Commission) 114
6.12.5.4 ATIS (Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions) 114
6.12.5.5 TIA (Telecommunications Industry Association) 115
6.12.6 UK 115
6.12.6.1 Ofcom 115
6.12.7 Russia 116
6.12.7.1 5GRUS 116
6.12.8 Germany 116
6.12.8.1 5G:Haus 116
6.12.9 Spain 117
6.12.9.1 5TONIC 117
6.12.10 Finland 118
6.12.10.1 5GTNF (5G Test Network Finland) 118
6.13 Academic Initiatives 119
6.13.1 5GIC (5G Innovation Center, University of Surrey) 119
6.13.2 NYU WIRELESS (New York University) 120
6.13.3 5G Lab (TU Dresden) 120
6.13.4 Viterbi School of Engineering (University of Southern California) 121
6.13.5 Hiroshima University 121
6.13.6 Tokyo Institute of Technology 122

7 Chapter 7: Vendor Demonstrations, Commitments & Strategies 123
7.1 Cohere Technologies 123
7.1.1 5G Strategy 123
7.1.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 123
7.2 Cisco Systems 124
7.2.1 5G Strategy 124
7.2.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 124
7.3 Ericsson 125
7.3.1 5G Strategy 125
7.3.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 125
7.4 Fujitsu 127
7.4.1 5G Strategy 127
7.4.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 127
7.5 Google 128
7.5.1 5G Strategy 128
7.5.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 128
7.6 Huawei 129
7.6.1 5G Strategy 129
7.6.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 129
7.7 Intel Corporation 131
7.7.1 5G Strategy 131
7.7.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 131
7.8 InterDigital 132
7.8.1 5G Strategy 132
7.8.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 132
7.9 Keysight Technologies 133
7.9.1 5G Strategy 133
7.9.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 133
7.10 Kumu Networks 134
7.10.1 5G Strategy 134
7.10.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 134
7.11 Mitsubishi Electric 135
7.11.1 5G Strategy 135
7.11.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 135
7.12 NEC Corporation 136
7.12.1 5G Strategy 136
7.12.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 136
7.13 NI (National Instruments) 137
7.13.1 5G Strategy 137
7.13.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 137
7.14 Nokia 138
7.14.1 5G Strategy 138
7.14.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 138
7.15 Panasonic 140
7.15.1 5G Strategy 140
7.15.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 140
7.16 Qualcomm 141
7.16.1 5G Strategy 141
7.16.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 141
7.17 Rohde & Schwarz 142
7.17.1 5G Strategy 142
7.17.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 142
7.18 Samsung 143
7.18.1 5G Strategy 143
7.18.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 143
7.19 SiBEAM 144
7.19.1 5G Strategy 144
7.19.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 144
7.20 ZTE 145
7.20.1 5G Strategy 145
7.20.2 Demonstrations & Trial Commitments 145

List of Figures
Figure 1: 5G Requirements 24
Figure 2: Potential Waveform Options for 5G 36
Figure 3: D2D Communication Scenarios 40
Figure 4: LSA Concept 42
Figure 5: NFV Concept 44
Figure 6: C-RAN Architecture 46
Figure 7: Cloud RAN Concept 48
Figure 8: Global 5G R&D Investments: 2016 - 2020 ($ Million) 51
Figure 9: Global 5G R&D Investments by Technology: 2016 - 2020 ($ Million) 52
Figure 10: Global 5G R&D Investments on New Waveforms & Millimeter Wave Radio Access: 2016 - 2020 ($ Million) 53
Figure 11: Global 5G R&D Investments on MIMO, Beamforming & Antenna Technologies: 2016 - 2020 ($ Million) 54
Figure 12: Global 5G R&D Investments on Interference & Spectrum Management: 2016 - 2020 ($ Million) 55
Figure 13: Global 5G R&D Investments on C-RAN, Virtualization & Other Technologies: 2016 - 2020 ($ Million) 56
Figure 14: Global 5G Infrastructure Investments: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 57
Figure 15: Global 5G Infrastructure Investments by Submarket: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 57
Figure 16: Global 5G Distributed Macrocell Base Station Shipments: 2020 - 2030 (Thousands of Units) 58
Figure 17: Global 5G Distributed Macrocell Base Station Shipment Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 58
Figure 18: Global 5G Small Cell Shipments: 2020 - 2030 (Thousands of Units) 59
Figure 19: Global 5G Small Cell Shipment Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 59
Figure 20: Global 5G RRH Shipments: 2020 - 2030 (Thousands of Units) 60
Figure 21: Global 5G RRH Shipment Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 60
Figure 22: Global 5G C-RAN BBU Shipments: 2020 - 2030 (Thousands of Units) 61
Figure 23: Global 5G C-RAN BBU Shipment Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 61
Figure 24: Global 5G Mobile Core Investments: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 62
Figure 25: Global 5G Fronthaul & Backhaul Investments: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 62
Figure 26: 5G Infrastructure Investments by Region: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 63
Figure 27: Global 5G Subscriptions: 2020 - 2030 (Millions) 64
Figure 28: Global 5G Service Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Billion) 64
Figure 29: 5G Subscriptions by Region: 2020 - 2030 (Millions) 65
Figure 30: 5G Service Revenue by Region: 2020 - 2030 ($ Billion) 65
Figure 31: Asia Pacific 5G Infrastructure Investments: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 66
Figure 32: Asia Pacific 5G Subscriptions: 2020 - 2030 (Millions) 66
Figure 33: Asia Pacific 5G Service Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Billion) 67
Figure 34: Eastern Europe 5G Infrastructure Investments: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 67
Figure 35: Eastern Europe 5G Subscriptions: 2020 - 2030 (Millions) 68
Figure 36: Eastern Europe 5G Service Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Billion) 68
Figure 37: Latin & Central America 5G Infrastructure Investments: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 69
Figure 38: Latin & Central America 5G Subscriptions: 2020 - 2030 (Millions) 69
Figure 39: Latin & Central America 5G Service Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Billion) 70
Figure 40: Middle East & Africa 5G Infrastructure Investments: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 70
Figure 41: Middle East & Africa 5G Subscriptions: 2020 - 2030 (Millions) 71
Figure 42: Middle East & Africa 5G Service Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Billion) 71
Figure 43: North America 5G Infrastructure Investments: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 72
Figure 44: North America 5G Subscriptions: 2020 - 2030 (Millions) 72
Figure 45: North America 5G Service Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Billion) 73
Figure 46: Western Europe 5G Infrastructure Investments: 2020 - 2030 ($ Million) 73
Figure 47: Western Europe 5G Subscriptions: 2020 - 2030 (Millions) 74
Figure 48: Western Europe 5G Service Revenue: 2020 - 2030 ($ Billion) 74
Figure 49: NTT DoCoMo’s 5G Roadmap 79
Figure 50: SK Telecom’s Phased 5G Approach 80
Figure 51: BBU-RRH Functional Split Options for 5G C-RAN 81
Figure 52: Spectrum Bands for 5G 82
Figure 53: IMT-2020 Development Roadmap 86
Figure 54: 3GPP 5G Standardization Roadmap 88
Figure 55: NGMN 5G Work Program 91
Figure 56: 5G Networks & Service Vision 96
Figure 57: 5G PPP’s Development Roadmap 97
Figure 58: ARIB’s Vision of Radio Access Technologies for 5G 110
Figure 59: Japan 5G Implementation Roadmap 111 

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