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Global Viral Infections Market to 2021 - Promising New Competitors and Expanding Treatment Population to Offset Increased Uptake of Generics

Published: Apr 4, 2016 | Pages: 179 | Publisher: GBI Research | Industry: Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare | Report Format: Electronic (PDF)

Global Viral Infections Market to 2021 - Promising New Competitors and Expanding Treatment Population to Offset Increased Uptake of Generics

Summary

Viruses are infectious particles comprising a nucleic acid core – consisting of either DNA or RNA – and a protein coat known as a capsid. Infections attributable to viral pathogens are transmitted, directly or indirectly, from one person to another or from animal to human. Viruses replicate by exploiting the resources of their host cells, usually to the detriment of the host. As viral pathogens are exceptionally diverse, the morbidity associated with viral infections varies significantly depending on the virus in question. This report covers all viral infections, although particular focus is given to four key indications within this disease cluster: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Hepatitis C Virus (HCV), Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and influenza. The global viral infections market was valued at $74.0 billion in 2014, and is projected to grow at a considerable Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.8%, reaching $117.6 billion in 2021. Key drivers of this growth will be the expanding treatment population and uptake of recently approved highly priced antiviral agents, as well as promising late-stage candidates that are expected to be priced highly.

Scope

The viral infections market is large and growing rapidly
  - How do epidemiology trends differ among the key indications?
  - What therapeutic options exist for preventing and treating viral infections?
  - Which products and companies dominate the market?
The pipeline is innovative and diverse
  - What is the proportion of early- to late-stage pipeline products?
  - Which molecular targets are most prominent within the pipeline? 
  - How do the key indications differ in terms of molecule type?
Considerable market growth is anticipated throughout 2021
  - Which products will contribute to this growth most significantly?
  - Will the current market leaders retain their dominance over the forecast period?
Deal values for licensing and co-development deals range considerably
  - How many strategic consolidations have been completed in the past decade?
  - Which types of assets attract the largest deal values?

Reasons to buy

This report will allow you to - 
- Examine the current clinical and commercial landscape by considering disease pathogenesis, treatment options and key marketed products.
- Appreciate how the four key indications - HIV, HCV, HBV and influenza - differ in terms of epidemiology, symptoms and co-morbidities and complications.
- Identify trends and developments, in terms of molecule type and molecular target, within the overall viral infections pipeline, as well as for each of the four key indications.
- Consider market opportunities and potential risks by examining trends in clinical trial duration and size, as well as clinical trial failure rates, by stage of development, key indication, molecule type and molecular target.
- Recognize how the evolving treatment landscape will drive market growth to 2021 and understand the contributions that different products, molecular targets and companies will make to this growth.
- Understand how strategic consolidations have shaped the current pipeline and marketed product landscapes.
 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 6

2 Introduction 9
2.1 Therapy Area Introduction 9
2.2 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) 9
2.2.1 Overview 9
2.2.2 Symptoms 10
2.2.3 Co-morbidities and Complications 10
2.2.4 Epidemiology 11
2.3 Hepatitis C Virus 12
2.3.1 Overview 12
2.3.2 Symptoms 13
2.3.3 Co-morbidities and Complications 13
2.3.4 Epidemiology 14
2.4 Hepatitis B Virus 14
2.4.1 Overview 14
2.4.2 Symptoms 15
2.4.3 Co-morbidities and Complications 15
2.4.4 Epidemiology 16
2.5 Influenza 16
2.5.1 Overview 16
2.5.2 Symptoms 17
2.5.3 Co-morbidities and Complications 17
2.5.4 Epidemiology 17
2.6 Etiology and Pathogenesis of Viral Infections 18
2.7 Treatment for Viral Infections 19
2.7.1 Vaccines 19
2.7.2 Antiviral Agents 20

3 Marketed Products 22
3.1 Multiple Indications 22
3.1.1 Viread - Gilead 22
3.1.2 Epivir/Epivir-HBV - ViiV Healthcare 23
3.1.3 Pegasys - F. Hoffmann La Roche 25
3.2 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) 26
3.2.1 Truvada - Gilead 26
3.2.2 Atripla - Gilead 28
3.2.3 Stribild - Gilead 29
3.2.4 Tivicay - ViiV Healthcare 31
3.2.5 Triumeq - ViiV Healthcare 32
3.2.6 Genvoya - Gilead 33
3.3 Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) 35
3.3.1 Olysio - Janssen 35
3.3.2 Sovaldi and Harvoni - Gilead 36
3.3.3 Zepatier - Merck and Co. 38
3.4 Hepatitis B Virus 39
3.4.1 Baraclude - Bristol-Myers Squibb 39
3.5 Influenza Virus 40
3.5.1 Tamiflu - Roche 40

4 Pipeline 42
4.1 Overview 42
4.2 Pipeline Products by Stage of Development and Molecule Type 42
4.3 Pipeline Products by Molecular Target 47
4.4 Clinical Trials Landscape 50
4.4.1 Clinical Trial Failure Rates 51
4.4.2 Clinical Trial Duration 54
4.4.3 Clinical Trial Size 57
4.4.4 Cumulative Clinical Trial Size 61
4.4.5 Conclusion 63
4.5 Assessment of Key Pipeline Products 63
4.5.1 Sofosbuvir in Combination with Velpatasvir - Gilead 63
4.5.2 Tenofovir alafenamide fumarate - Gilead 65
4.5.3 Descovy - Gilead 66
4.5.4 Cobicistat, darunavir, emtricitabine and TAF - Johnson & Johnson 67
4.5.5 Beclabuvir hydrochloride - Bristol-Myers Squibb 68
4.5.6 V-212 - Merck 69

5 Multi-scenario Market Forecast to 2021 71
5.1 Revenues Analysis by Molecular Target 73
5.1.1 Reverse Transcriptase 73
5.1.2 Nonstructural Protein 5B Polymerase and Nonstructural Protein 5B Polymerase/Nonstructural Protein 5A 74
5.1.3 HIV Integrase 75
5.1.4 Cytochrome P450 3A4/Cytochrome P450 3A5/HIV-1 Integrase/Reverse Transcriptase 76
5.1.5 NS3-4A Protease/Nonstructural Protein 5A 77
5.2 Revenue and Market Share Analysis by Company 78
5.2.1 Gilead Sciences - Monopolization of Market to Continue Throughout 2021 81
5.2.2 Merck - Uptake of Zepatier and Gardasil 9 to Encourage Strong Growth 82
5.2.3 GlaxoSmithKline - Tivicay and Triumeq to Propel Company Revenues 83
5.2.4 Johnson and Johnson - Market Share to Dwindle as Sales for Prezista and Olysio Decline 85
5.2.5 Bristol-Myers Squibb - Marginalization Due to Patent Expirations 86

6 Company Analysis and Positioning 87
6.1 Company Landscape 87

7 Strategic Consolidations 90
7.1 Licensing Deals 90
7.1.1 Deals by Region, Value, Year and Indication 90
7.1.2 Deals by Stage of Development and Value 92
7.1.3 Deals by Molecule Type, Molecular Target and Value 93
7.2 Co-development Deals 98
7.2.1 Deals by Region, Value, Year and Indication 98
7.2.2 Deals by Stage of Development and Value 100
7.2.3 Deals by Molecule Type, Molecular Target and Value 101

8 Appendix 104
8.1 References 104
8.2 Abbreviations 112
8.3 Table of All Pipeline Products 113
8.4 Methodology 177
8.4.1 Coverage 177
8.4.2 Secondary Research 177
8.4.3 Market Size and Revenue Forecasts 178
8.4.4 Pipeline Analysis 178
8.4.5 Competitive Landscape 179
8.5 Contact Us 179
8.6 Disclaimer 179
List of Tables
Table 1: Common Routes of Viral Entry 18
Table 2: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Licensing Deals Valued Above $100m, 2006-2016 95
Table 3: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Co-development Deals Valued Above $100m, 2006-2016 103
Table 4: Table of All Pipeline Products 113

List of Figures
Figure 1: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Major Markets, HIV Prevalence (‘000), 2014-2021 12
Figure 2: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Major Markets, HCV Prevalence (‘000), 2014-2021 14
Figure 3: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Viread ($m), 2006-2021 23
Figure 4: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Epivir/Epivir-HBV ($m), 2006-2021 24
Figure 5: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Pegasys ($m), 2006-2021 26
Figure 6: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Truvada ($bn), 2006-2021 28
Figure 7: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Atripla ($bn), 2006-2021 29
Figure 8: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Stribild ($bn), 2012-2021 30
Figure 9: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Tivicay  ($bn), 2013-2021 31
Figure 10: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Annual Revenues for Triumeq  ($bn), 2015-2021 33
Figure 11: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Annual Revenues for Genvoya ($bn), 2016-2021 34
Figure 12: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Olysio ($m), 2013-2021 36
Figure 13: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Sovaldi and Harvoni  ($bn), 2013-2021 37
Figure 14: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Annual Revenues for Zepatier  ($bn), 2016-2021 38
Figure 15: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Baraclude ($m), 2006-2021 40
Figure 16: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Historic and Forecast Annual Revenues for Tamiflu ($m), 2006-2021 41
Figure 17: Overall Pharmaceutical Industry Pipeline by Therapy Area, Global, 2016 42
Figure 18: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline for Viral Infections by Stage of Development and Molecule Type, 2016 43
Figure 19: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline for Key Indications by Stage of Development, 2016 45
Figure 20: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline for Key Indications by Molecule Type, 2016 46
Figure 21: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline  by Molecular Target and Stage of Development, 2016 48
Figure 22: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Breakdown of Viral Surface Protein, Immune Mediator and Polymerase Molecular Targets, 2016 49
Figure 23: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline  for Key Indications by Molecular Target,  2016 50
Figure 24: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Failure Rates by Stage of Development and Overall Clinical Trial Attrition Rate (%), 2006-2016 51
Figure 25: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Failure and Attrition Rates by Indication and Stage of Development (%), 2006-2016 52
Figure 26: Viral infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development and Molecule Type (%), 2006-2016 53
Figure 27: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development and Molecular Target (%), 2006-2016 54
Figure 28: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Indication and Stage of Development (Months), 2006-2016 55
Figure 29: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Molecule Type and Stage of Development (Months), 2006-2016 56
Figure 30: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Molecular Target and Stage of Development (Months), 2006-2016 57
Figure 31: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Recruitment Size by Indication and Stage of Development (Participants), 2006-2016 58
Figure 32: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Recruitment Size by Molecule Type and Stage of Development (participants), 2006-2016 59
Figure 33: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Recruitment Size by Molecular Target and Stage of Development (participants), 2006-2016 60
Figure 34: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Cumulative Clinical Trial Recruitment Size by Indication and Stage of Development (participants), 2006-2016 61
Figure 35: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Cumulative Clinical Trial Recruitment Size by Molecule Type and Stage of Development (participants), 2006-2016 62
Figure 36: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Cumulative Clinical Trial Recruitment Size by Molecular Target and Stage of Development (participants), 2006-2016 63
Figure 37: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Annual Revenues for Sofosbuvir in Combination with Velpatasvir ($bn), 2016-2021 65
Figure 38: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Annual Revenues for TAF ($bn), 2016-2021 66
Figure 39: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Annual Revenues for Descovy ($bn), 2016-2021 67
Figure 40: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Annual Revenues for Cobicistat in combination with darunavir, emtricitabine and TAF ($bn), 2016-2021 68
Figure 41: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Annual Revenues for Beclabuvir Hydrochloride ($bn), 2016-2021 69
Figure 42: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Annual Revenues for V-212 ($m), 2017-2021 70
Figure 43: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Market Size ($bn), 2014-2021 71
Figure 44: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Revenues for Strongest Commercial Products, 2014-2021 72
Figure 45: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Premium and Generic Market Share ($bn), 2014-2021 73
Figure 46: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Sales Revenues for Products Targeting Reverse Transcriptase ($bn), 2014-2021 74
Figure 47: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Sales Revenues for Products Targeting Nonstructural Protein 5B Polymerase/Nonstructural Protein 5A, ($bn), 2014-2021 75
Figure 48: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Sales Revenues for Products Targeting HIV Integrase, ($bn), 2014-2021 76
Figure 49: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Sales Revenues for Products Targeting Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Sales Revenues for Products Targeting Cytochrome P450 3A4/Cytochrome P450 3A5/HIV-1 Integrase/Reverse Transcriptase, ($bn), 2014-2021 77
Figure 50: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Sales Revenues for Products Targeting NS3-4A Protease/Nonstructural Protein 5A, ($bn), 2014-2021 78
Figure 51: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues by Company, 2014-2021 78
Figure 52: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Companies by Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), 2014-2021 79
Figure 53: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Companies by Market Share, 2014-2021 79
Figure 54: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Revenues by Route of Acquisition, 2014-2021 80
Figure 55: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Gilead Sciences Annual Revenues ($bn), 2014-2021 81
Figure 56: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Gilead Sciences Annual Revenues by Product ($m), 2014-2021 82
Figure 57: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Merck Annual Revenues ($bn), 2014-2021 83
Figure 58: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Merck Annual Revenues by Product ($m), 2014-2021 83
Figure 59: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, GlaxoSmithKline Annual Revenues ($bn), 2014-2021 84
Figure 60: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, GlaxoSmithKline Annual Revenues by Product ($m), 2014-2021 84
Figure 61: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Johnson and Johnson Annual Revenues ($bn), 2014-2021 85
Figure 62: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Johnson and Johnson Annual Revenues by Product ($m), 2014-2021 85
Figure 63: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Bristol-Myers Squibb Annual Revenues ($bn), 2014-2021 86
Figure 64: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Bristol-Myers Squibb Annual Revenues by Product ($m), 2014-2021 86
Figure 65: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global High-Activity and Late-Stage Pipeline Developers by Company Type, 2006-2016 87
Figure 66: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global High-Activity and Late-Stage Pipeline Developers by Company Type, 2006-2016 88
Figure 67: Viral Infections Therapeutic Market, Global, Proportion of Total Company Revenue Attributed to Viral Infection Products, 2014-2021 89
Figure 68: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Licensing Deals by Region, Deal Value and Year, 2006-2016 91
Figure 69: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Licensing Deals by Indication and Deal Value, 2006-2016 92
Figure 70: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Licensing Deals by Deal Value, Upfront Payment Value and Stage of Development, 2006-2016 93
Figure 71: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Licensing Deals by Molecule Type, Molecular Target and Deal Value, 2006-2016 94
Figure 72: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Co-development Deals by Region, Deal Value and Year, 2006-2016 99
Figure 73: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Co-development Deals by Indication and Deal Value, 2006-2016 100
Figure 74: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Co-development Deals by Deal Value, Upfront Payment Value and Stage of Development, 2006-2016 101
Figure 75: Viral Infections Therapeutics Market, Global, Co-development Deals by Molecule Type, Molecular Target and Deal Value, 2006-2016 102 



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