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Global Oncology Market to 2023 - Robust Growth Driven by Rising Prevalence and Increased Uptake of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Published: Jun 13, 2017 | Pages: 420 | Publisher: GBI Research | Industry: Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare | Report Format: Electronic (PDF)

Global Oncology Market to 2023 - Robust Growth Driven by Rising Prevalence and Increased Uptake of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Summary

In 2012, there were 32.6 million people living with any type of cancer within five years of diagnosis. These are generally incurable once they progress to the stage where they are unresectable. Chemotherapy compounds are a mainstay treatment for cancers of all types, at various disease stages. In a typical course of therapy for cancer, multiple chemotherapy compounds are administered sequentially in combination regimens, as an adjunct to surgery and radiation therapy. Chemotherapy drugs are cytotoxic to dividing cells, meaning that they act on both healthy and malignant tissues and are fairly toxic. However, they exert more damage on malignant tissue than healthy tissue due to the rapid cell cycle of cancer cells. The key cancer indications of this report are breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate and hematological cancers.

A number of common etiologic factors have been strongly characterized as raising the risk of developing cancer, including age, chronic inflammation, gender, obesity, tobacco usage and heritable cancer syndromes. The risk of cancer increases greatly in patients over the age of 65. Populations in developed countries are projected to become increasingly aged and show rising obesity incidence, which will drive both cancer prevalence and revenue growth for its treatments.

There has been a shift towards developing targeted therapies, such as mAbs and cell therapies. Targeted therapies, by their nature, have less toxicity associated with their use and as a result can be administered to more cancer patients, who are commonly elderly and have co-morbidities, therefore increasing the overall survival of this group and the number of treatment cycles they may receive. The most commercially successful oncology treatments are mAbs such as MabThera/Rituxan, Avastin and Herceptin.

Scope

- Global revenue for the oncology market is forecast to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.66%, from $118.6 billion in 2016 to $241.0 billion in 2023. Which drugs will achieve blockbuster status and how will the key player companies perform during the forecast period?
- The oncology pipeline is large and fairly diverse and contains 7,773 products. How does the composition of the pipeline compare with that of the existing market? What are the most popular types of molecule type and molecular target in the pipeline?
- What mechanisms of action and molecule types are most common for pipeline products being trialed in the various key indications? 
- How will the market shares and CAGRs of the top 20 pharma companies compare within oncology?
- What proportion of the key players’ revenues will be attributable to oncology products?

Reasons to buy

- Understand the current clinical and commercial landscape by considering disease pathogenesis, diagnosis, prognosis, and the treatment options available at each stage of diagnosis
- Visualize the composition of the oncology market across each indication, in terms of dominant molecule types and targets, highlighting the key commercial assets and players
- Analyze the oncology pipeline and stratify by stage of development, molecule type and molecular target, with a granular breakdown across key indications
- Understand the growth in patient epidemiology and market revenue for the oncology market globally and across the key players and product types
- Stratify the market in terms of the generic and premium product revenue split between oncology products and assess the role of these product types in the treatment of the various cancers
- Identify commercial opportunities in the oncology deals landscape by analyzing trends in licensing and co-development deals
  Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 7

2 Introduction 10
2.1 Therapy Area Introduction 10
2.2 Symptoms 11
2.3 Diagnosis 12
2.4 Etiology and Pathophysiology 13
2.4.1 Etiology 13
2.4.2 Pathophysiology 15
2.5 Co-morbidities and Complications 16
2.6 Epidemiology Patterns - Prevalence, Patient Segmentation, and Diagnostic and Treatment Usage Rates 17
2.6.1 Breast Cancer 17
2.6.2 Colorectal Cancer 18
2.6.3 Lung Cancer 19
2.6.4 Prostate Cancer 20
2.6.5 Hematological Cancers 21
2.7 Prognosis 22
2.7.1 Breast Cancer 22
2.7.2 Colorectal Cancer 23
2.7.3 Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer 23
2.7.4 Prostate Cancer 24
2.8 Treatment 25
2.8.1 Surgery and Radiation Therapy 25
2.8.2 Chemotherapy 26
2.8.3 Hormonal Therapies 28
2.8.4 Targeted Therapies 29

3 Key Marketed Products 31
3.1 Overview 31
3.2 MabThera/Rituxan (rituximab) 32
3.3 Avastin (bevacizumab) 33
3.4 Herceptin (trastuzumab) 35
3.5 Revlimid (lenalidomide) 37
3.6 Opdivo (nivolumab) 39
3.7 Xtandi (enzalutamide) 41
3.8 Gleevec/Glivec (imatinib mesylate) 42
3.9 Alimta (pemetrexed) 44
3.10 Zytiga (abiraterone acetate) 46
3.11 Conclusion 47

4 Pipeline Landscape Assessment 49
4.1 Overview 49
4.2 Pipeline Development Landscape 50
4.3 Molecular Targets in the Pipeline 54
4.4 Clinical Trials 58
4.4.1 Failure Rate by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target 58
4.4.2 Clinical Trial Size and Duration by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target 62
4.4.3 Clinical Trial Size and Duration by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target 66
4.4.4 Aggregate Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target 70
4.4.5 Conclusion 74
4.5 Assessment of Key Pipeline Products 74
4.5.1 Durvalumab - AstraZeneca 74
4.5.2 Durvalumab and Tremelimumab - AstraZeneca 75
4.5.3 Abemaciclib - Eli Lilly 76
4.5.4 Rova-T (rovalpituzumab tesirine) - AbbVie 77
4.5.5 Neratinib - Puma Biotechnology 79
4.5.6 Acalabrutinib - AstraZeneca 80
4.5.7 KTE-C19 (Axicabtagene Ciloleucel) - Kite Pharma 81
4.5.8 Tisagenlecleucel-T - Novartis 83
4.5.9 Conclusion 84

5 Multi-scenario Market Forecast to 2023 85
5.1 Overall Market Size 85
5.2 Generic Penetration 101
5.3 Revenue Forecast by Molecular Target 103
5.3.1 Programmed Cell Death Protein 1/Programmed Cell Death 1 Ligand 1 103
5.3.2 Tumor Necrosis Factor 105
5.3.3 Tyrosine-Protein Kinase BTK 106
5.3.4 Cyclin-Dependent Kinases 107
5.3.5 Androgen Receptor 108
5.3.6 Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor 109

6 Company Analysis and Positioning 110
6.1 Revenue and Market Share Analysis by Company 111
6.1.1 Roche - To What Extent Will Newly Approved and Pipeline Product Approvals Offset the Patent Expiries of Avastin and Herceptin? 116
6.1.2 Celgene - How Will Multiple Patent Expiries Affect Oncology-Related Revenues? 118
6.1.3 Novartis - How Will Mekinist plus Tafinlar and Tasigna Perform over the Forecast Period? 119
6.1.4 Bristol-Myers Squibb - How Successful Will Recent Approvals Opdivo and Empliciti Become? 120
6.1.5 Pfizer - What Do Sutent and Inlyta Patent Expiries Mean for Pfizer? 120
6.1.6 AstraZeneca - How Will its Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Durvalumab and Tremelimumab Perform? 121
6.2 Company Landscape 123
6.3 Marketed and Pipeline Portfolio Analysis 124

7 Strategic Consolidations 126
7.1 Licensing Deals 126
7.1.1 Deals by Region, Year and Value 126
7.1.2 Deals by Stage of Development and Value 129
7.1.3 Deals by Molecule Type, Mechanism of Action and Value 130
7.1.4 Table for Licensing Deals Valued Above $100m 131
7.2 Co-development Deals 145
7.2.1 Deals by Region, Year and Value 145
7.2.2 Deals by Stage of Development and Value 147
7.2.3 Deals by Molecule Type, Mechanism of Action and Value 148
7.2.4 Table for Co-development Deals Valued $1 billion and Above 149

8 Appendix 156
8.1 References 156
8.2 Abbreviations 417
8.3 Methodology 418
8.3.1 Secondary Research 418
8.3.2 Market Size and Revenue Forecasts 419
8.3.3 Pipeline Analysis 419
8.3.4 Competitive Landscape 419
8.4 Contact Us 420
8.5 Disclaimer 420
List of Tables

Table 1: Oncology, Global, Symptoms of Key Indication Cancers, 2017 12
Table 2: Complications Associated with Breast, Colorectal, Lung, Prostate and Hematological Cancers 16
Table 3: Oncology, Global, Epidemiology of Key Indication Cancers, 2017 17
Table 4: Oncology Market, US, Breast Cancer Stage at Diagnosis and Five-Year Relative Survival (%), 2017 22
Table 5: Oncology Market, US, Colorectal Cancer Stage and Survival Rates (%), 2017 23
Table 6: Oncology Market, US, Lung Cancer Stage at Diagnosis and Five-Year Relative Survival (%), 2017 24
Table 7: Oncology, US, Prostate Cancer Stage at Diagnosis and Five-Year Relative Survival (%), 2017 24
Table 8: Optimal and Actual Chemotherapy Usage Rates, 2010 28
Table 9: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Rituxan, 2017 32
Table 10: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Avastin, 2017 34
Table 11: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Herceptin, 2017 36
Table 12: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Revlimid, 2017 38
Table 13: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Opdivo, 2017 40
Table 14: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Xtandi, 2017 41
Table 15: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Gleevec, 2017 43
Table 16: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Alimta, 2017 45
Table 17: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Zytiga, 2017 46
Table 18: Oncology, Global, Market Size ($bn), 2016-2023 (Part 1) 87
Table 19: Oncology, Global, Market Size ($bn), 2016-2023 (Part 2) 94
Table 20: Oncology, Global, Usage of Generics Across Key Indications, 2017 102
Table 21: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Revenues by Company, 2016-2023 112
Table 22: Oncology, Global, Licensing Deals by Molecule Type and Mechanism of Action, 2006-2017 131
Table 23: Oncology, Global, Co-development Deals by Molecule Type and Mechanism of Action, 2006-2017 149
Table 24: Oncology, Global, All Pipeline Products, 2017 163
Table 25: Abbreviations 417

List of Figures

Figure 1: Oncology, Major Markets, Treatment Usage Patterns for Breast Cancer, Patients (millions), 2016-2022 18
Figure 2: Oncology, Major Markets, Treatment Usage Patterns for Colorectal Cancer, Patients (‘000), 2016-2023 19
Figure 3: Oncology, Major Markets, Treatment Usage Patterns for Lung Cancer, Patients (‘000), 2016-2023 20
Figure 4: Oncology, Major Markets, Treatment Usage Patterns for Prostate Cancer, Patients (millions), 2016-2021 21
Figure 5: Oncology, Major Markets, Treatment Usage Patterns for Hematological Cancer, Patients (‘000), 2016-2023 22
Figure 6: Oncology, Global, Key Marketed Products and Approved Indications, 2017 31
Figure 7: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue for Rituxan ($bn), 2006-2023 33
Figure 8: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenues for Avastin ($bn), 2006-2023 35
Figure 9: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenues for Herceptin ($bn), 2006-2023 37
Figure 10: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue for Revlimid ($bn), 2006-2023 39
Figure 11: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenues for Opdivo ($bn), 2014-2023 41
Figure 12: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenues for Xtandi ($bn), 2012-2023 42
Figure 13: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenues for Gleevec ($bn), 2006-2023 44
Figure 14: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenues for Alimta ($bn), 2006-2023 46
Figure 15: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenues for Zytiga ($bn), 2011-2023 47
Figure 16: Oncology, Global, Overall Pharmaceutical Industry Pipeline by Therapy Area, 2017 49
Figure 17: Oncology, Global, Pipeline for Oncology by Stage of Development, Molecule Type and Program Type, 2017 51
Figure 18: Oncology, Global, Pipeline for Key Oncology Indications by Stage of Development, 2017 53
Figure 19: Oncology, Global, Pipeline for Key Oncology Indications by Molecule Type, 2017 54
Figure 20: Oncology, Global, Pipeline for Oncology by Molecular Target, 2017 55
Figure 21: Oncology, Pipeline by Mechanism of Action and Stage of Development, 2017 56
Figure 22: Oncology, Global, Pipeline for Key Oncology Indications by Molecular Target, 2017 57
Figure 23: Oncology, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development (%), 2006-2017 58
Figure 24: Oncology, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development and Indication (%), 2006-2017 59
Figure 25: Oncology, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development and Molecule Type (%), 2006-2017 60
Figure 26: Oncology, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development and Molecular Target (%), 2006-2017 61
Figure 27: Oncology, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Stage of Development (months), 2006-2017 62
Figure 28: Oncology, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Stage of Development and Indication (months), 2006-2017 63
Figure 29: Oncology, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Stage of Development and Molecule Type (months), 2006-2017 64
Figure 30: Oncology, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Stage of Development and Molecular Target (months), 2006-2017 65
Figure 31: Oncology, Global, Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development (participants), 2006-2017 66
Figure 32: Oncology, Global, Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development and Indication (participants), 2006-2017 67
Figure 33: Oncology, Global, Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development and Molecule Type (participants), 2006-2017 68
Figure 34: Oncology, Global, Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development and Molecular Target (participants), 2006-2017 69
Figure 35: Oncology, Global, Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development (participants), 2006-2017 70
Figure 36: Oncology, Global, Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development and Indication (participants), 2006-2017 71
Figure 37: Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development and Molecule Type (participants), 2006-2017 72
Figure 38: Oncology, Global, Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development and Molecular Target (participants), 2006-2017 73
Figure 39: Oncology, Global, Revenue Forecast for Durvalumab ($bn), 2017-2023 75
Figure 40: Oncology, Global, Revenue Forecast for Durvalumab + Tremelimumab ($bn), 2017-2023 76
Figure 41: Oncology, Global, Revenue Forecast for Abemaciclib ($bn), 2018-2023 77
Figure 42: Oncology, Global, Revenue Forecast for Rova-T ($bn), 2018-2023 79
Figure 43: Oncology, Global, Revenue Forecast for Neratinib ($bn), 2016-2023 80
Figure 44: Oncology, Global, Revenue Forecast for Acalabrutinib ($bn), 2018-2023 81
Figure 45: Oncology, Global, Revenue Forecast for Axicabtagene Ciloleucel ($bn), 2017-2023 82
Figure 46: Oncology, Global, Revenue Forecast for Tisagenlecleucel-T ($bn), 2017-2023 84
Figure 47: Oncology, Global, Market Size ($bn), 2016-2023 86
Figure 48: Oncology, Global, Generic Penetration for Annual Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2016-2023 101
Figure 49: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Programmed Cell Death Protein 1/ Programmed Cell Death 1 Ligand 1 ($bn), 2016-2023 104
Figure 50: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Tumor Necrosis Factor ($bn), 2016-2023 105
Figure 51: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Tyrosine-Protein Kinase BTK ($bn), 2016-2023 106
Figure 52: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Cyclin-Dependent Kinases ($bn), 2016-2023 107
Figure 53: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Androgen Receptor ($bn), 2016-2023 108
Figure 54: Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor ($bn), 2016-2023 109
Figure 55: Oncology, Global, Companies by Type, Cluster by Growth and Market Share, 2016-2023 110
Figure 56: Oncology, Global, Company Analysis Matrix, 2017 111
Figure 57: Oncology, Global, Forecast Market Share by Company (%), 2016-2023 114
Figure 58: Oncology, Global, Companies by Compound Annual Growth Rate (%), 2016-2023 115
Figure 59: Oncology, Global, Revenues by Product Type, 2016-2023 116
Figure 60: Oncology, Global, Roche Oncology Annual Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2016-2023 117
Figure 61: Oncology, Global, Celgene Annual Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2016-2023 118
Figure 62: Oncology, Global, Novartis AG Annual Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2016-2023 119
Figure 63: Oncology, Global, Bristol-Myers Annual Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2016-2023 120
Figure 64: Oncology, Global, Pfizer Annual Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2016-2023 121
Figure 65: Oncology, AstraZeneca Annual Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2016-2023 122
Figure 66: Oncology, Global, Companies by Type, 2016-2023 123
Figure 67: Oncology, Global, Pipeline, High-Activity and Late-Stage Developers by Level of Oncology Specialization, 2016-2023 124
Figure 68: Oncology, Global, Proportion of Total Company Revenue Attributed to Cancer, 2016-2023 125
Figure 69: Oncology, Global, Licensing Deals, 2006-2017 127
Figure 70: Oncology, Global, Licensing Deals by Indication and Value, 2006-2017 128
Figure 71: Oncology, Global, Licensing Deals by Volume and Value, 2006-2017 129
Figure 72: Oncology, Global, Licensing Deals by Molecule Type and Molecular Target, 2006-2017 130
Figure 73: Oncology, Global, Co-development Deals, 2006-2017 145
Figure 74: Oncology, Global, Co-development Deals by Indication and Value, 2006-2017 146
Figure 75: Oncology, Global, Co-development Deals by Volume and Value, 2006-2017 147
Figure 76: Oncology, Global, Co-development Deals by Molecule Type and Mechanism of Action, 2006-2017 148 



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