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Global Non-Hematological Cancers Market to 2021 - Strong growth driven by increased uptake of low toxicity targeted treatments and versatile biologics

Published: Mar 31, 2016 | Pages: 183 | Publisher: GBI Research | Industry: Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare | Report Format: Electronic (PDF)

Global Non-Hematological Cancers Market to 2021 - Strong growth driven by increased uptake of low toxicity targeted treatments and versatile biologics

Summary

In 2012, there were 32.6 million people living with any type of cancer within five years of diagnosis, non-hematological cancers are thought to account for 94% of global cancer prevalence. The key cancer indications of this report, namely breast, colorectal, lung and prostate cancer, constitute approximately 51% of global cancer prevalence.

The risk of cancer increases greatly in patients over the age of 65. As populations are projected to increase, with aging and increasing incidence of obesity, the prevalence of cancer as a genetic disease is only anticipated to increase, thereby acting as a driver for revenue growth.  Typically, chemotherapy has curative or palliative uses depending on whether the patient’s tumors are resectable or unresectable, respectively; however, use of chemotherapies is often reliant on performance status, which is lacking in many cancer patients.

There has been a shift towards developing targeted therapies, which by their nature have less toxicity associated with their use and as a result can be administered to greater numbers of cancer patients, who are commonly elderly and have co-morbidities, therefore increasing the overall survival of this group and the number of treatment cycles they may receive.

Scope

Global revenues for the non-hematological cancer market are forecast to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.86%, from $73 billion in 2014 to $141 billion in 2021
  - What is the generic penetration?
  - Which drugs will achieve blockbuster status?
Overall, there are 6,484 oncology products in the pipeline, which make it the largest therapy area pipeline
  - How does the composition of the pipeline compare with that of the existing market?
  - What mechanisms of action are most common for pipeline drugs?
18 of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies will market non-hematological cancer drugs in the forecast period
  - How is their revenue share of the non-hematological cancer market set to change?
  - What CAGR will these companies register in the forecast period?

Reasons to buy

This report will allow you to - 
- Understand the current clinical and commercial landscape by considering disease pathogenesis, diagnosis, prognosis and the treatment options available at each stage of diagnosis
- Visualize the composition of the non-hematological cancer market across each indication, in terms of dominant molecule types and targets, highlighting the key commercial assets and players
- Analyze the non-hematological cancer pipeline and stratify by stage of development, molecule type and molecular target, with a granular breakdown across key indications
- Understand the growth in patient epidemiology and market revenues for the non-hematological cancer market globally and across the key players and product types
- Stratify the market in terms of the split between generic and premium products and assess the role of these product types in the treatment of the various non-hematological cancers
- Identify commercial opportunities in the non-hematological cancer deals landscape by analyzing trends in licensing and co-development deals
 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 6

2 Introduction 9
2.1 Therapy Area Introduction 9
2.2 Symptoms 10
2.3 Etiology and Pathophysiology 11
2.3.1 Etiology 11
2.3.2 Pathophysiology 12
2.3.3 Tumor Initiation 13
2.3.4 Enhanced Growth, Evasion of Apoptosis and Replicative Immortality 14
2.3.5 Tumor Metabolic Shift 17
2.3.6 Tumor Progression, Invasion and Metastasis 17
2.3.7 Evasion of the Immune Response 19
2.3.8 Cancer Stem Cells 20
2.4 Co-morbidities and Complications 20
2.5 Epidemiology Patterns - Prevalence, Patient Segmentation, and Diagnostic and Treatment Usage Rates 21
2.5.1 Breast Cancer 22
2.5.2 Colorectal Cancer 22
2.5.3 Lung Cancer 23
2.5.4 Prostate Cancer 24
2.6 Treatment 25
2.6.1 Surgery and Radiation Therapy 26
2.6.2 Chemotherapy 27
2.6.3 Hormonal Therapies 29
2.6.4 Targeted Therapies 30

3 Key Marketed Products 32
3.1 Overview 32
3.2 Avastin (bevacizumab) 33
3.3 Herceptin (trastuzumab) 35
3.4 Alimta (pemetrexed) 37
3.5 Zytiga (abiraterone acetate) 38
3.6 Xtandi (enzalutamide) 39
3.7 Perjeta (pertuzumab) 40
3.8 Tarceva (erlotinib hydrochloride) 41
3.9 Yervoy (ipilimumab) 43
3.10 Conclusion 44

4 Pipeline Landscape Assessment 45
4.1 Overview 45
4.2 Pipeline Development Landscape 45
4.3 Molecular Targets in the Pipeline 49
4.4 Clinical Trials 52
4.4.1 Failure Rate by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target 53
4.4.2 Clinical Trial Duration by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target 56
4.4.3 Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target 60
4.4.4 Aggregate Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development, Indication, Molecule Type and Molecular Target 64
4.4.5 Conclusion 68
4.5 Assessment of Key Pipeline Products 69
4.5.1 Neratinib - Puma Biotechnology 69
4.5.2 AZD-4736 - AstraZeneca 70
4.5.3 LY2835219 - Eli Lilly 71
4.5.4 LEE-011 - Novartis 72
4.5.5 JNJ-56021927 - Johnson & Johnson 73
4.5.6 Tremelimumab - AstraZeneca 74
4.5.7 Margetuximab - Macrogenics 75
4.5.8 Conclusion 76

5 Multi-scenario Market Forecast to 2021 77
5.1 Overall Market Size 77
5.2 Generic Penetration 79
5.3 Revenue Forecast by Molecular Target 82
5.3.1 Epidermal Growth Factor Receptors 82
5.3.2 Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 4 and 6 83
5.3.3 Programmed Cell Death Protein 1 Inhibitor 83
5.3.4 VEGF Inhibitors 84
5.3.5 ALK Tyrosine Kinase Receptor 85
5.3.6 Androgen Receptor Antagonists 86
5.4 Revenue and Market Share Analysis by Company 87
5.4.1 Roche - To What Extent Will Newly Approved and Pipeline Product Approvals Offset Avastin’s and Herceptin’s Patent Expiries? 91
5.4.2 Novartis - Markets Blockbuster Drugs, but How Much of These Revenues Are Related to Non-hematological Cancers? 92
5.4.3 Bristol-Myers - What Does Limited Product Selection for Non-hematological Cancers Mean for Revenues? 94
5.4.4 Pfizer - What Do Patent Expiries Mean for Pfizer? 95
5.4.5 Astellas - Tarceva’s Expiry Effects 96
5.4.6 Amgen - Growth Despite Multiple Patent Expiries 97

6 Company Analysis and Positioning 98
6.1 Company Landscape 98
6.2 Marketed and Pipeline Portfolio Analysis 99

7 Strategic Consolidations 101
7.1 Licensing Deals 101
7.1.1 Deals by Region, Year and Value 101
7.1.2 Deals by Stage of Development and Value 103
7.1.3 Deals by Molecule Type, Mechanism of Action and Value 104
7.1.4 Table for Licensing Deals Valued Above $100m 106
7.2 Co-development Deals 112
7.2.1 Deals by Region, Year and Value 112
7.2.2 Deals by Stage of Development and Value 114
7.2.3 Deals by Molecule Type, Mechanism of Action and Value 115
7.2.4 Table for Co-development Deals Valued Above $100m 117

8 Appendix 121
8.1 References 121
8.2 Table of All Clinical Stage Pipeline Products 134
8.3 Abbreviations 180
8.4 Methodology 181
8.4.1 Coverage 181
8.4.2 Secondary Research 182
8.4.3 Market Size and Revenue Forecasts 182
8.4.4 Pipeline Analysis 182
8.4.5 Competitive Landscape 183
8.5 Contact Us 183
8.6 Disclaimer 183
List of Tables
Table 1:  Oncology, Global, Symptoms of Most Prevalent Non-hematological Cancers, 2015 10
Table 2:  Complications Associated with Breast, Colorectal, Lung and Prostate Cancers 21
Table 3:  Oncology, Global, Epidemiology of Most Prevalent Non-hematological Cancers, 2015 21
Table 4:  Optimal and Actual Radiation Therapy Usage Rates, US, 1995-2000 27
Table 5:  Optimal and Actual Chemotherapy Usage Rates, Australia, 2010 29
Table 6:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Avastin, 2015 34
Table 7:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Herceptin, 2015 36
Table 8:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Alimta, 2015 37
Table 9:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Zytiga, 2015 38
Table 10:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Xtandi, 2015 39
Table 11:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Perjeta, 2015 40
Table 12:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Tarceva, 2015 42
Table 13:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Approved Indications for Yervoy, 2015 43
Table 14:  Oncology, Global, Market Size ($bn), 2014-2021 78
Table 15:  Oncology, Global, Usage of Generics Across Key Indications, 2016 81
Table 16:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Revenues by Company, 2014-2021 87
Table 17:  Oncology, Global, Licensing Deals by Molecule Type and Mechanism of Action, 2006-2016 106
Table 18:  Oncology, Global, Co-development Deals by Molecule Type and Mechanism of Action, 2006-2016 117
Table 19:  Oncology, Global, All Clinical Stage Pipeline Products, 2016 134
Table 20:  Abbreviations 180

List of Figures
Figure 1:  Oncology, Major Markets, Treatment Usage Patterns for Breast Cancer, Patients (‘000), 2014-2021 22
Figure 2:  Oncology, Major Markets, Treatment Usage Patterns for Colorectal Cancer, Patients (‘000), 2014-2021 23
Figure 3:  Oncology, Major Markets, Treatment Usage Patterns for Lung Cancer, Patients (‘000), 2014-2021 24
Figure 4:  Oncology, Major Markets, Treatment Usage Patterns for Prostate Cancer, Patients (‘000), 2014-2021 25
Figure 5:  Non-hematological Cancer, Global, Key Marketed Products and Approved Indications, 2015 32
Figure 6:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenues for Avastin ($bn), 2006-2021 35
Figure 7:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenues for Herceptin ($bn), 2006-2021 36
Figure 8:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenues for Alimta ($bn), 2006-2021 38
Figure 9:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenues for Zytiga ($bn), 2011-2021 39
Figure 10:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenues for Xtandi ($bn), 2012-2021 40
Figure 11:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenues for Perjeta ($bn), 2012-2021 41
Figure 12:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenues for Tarceva ($bn), 2006-2021 43
Figure 13:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Revenues for Yervoy ($bn), 2011-2021 44
Figure 14:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Overall Pharmaceutical Industry Pipeline by Therapy Area, 2016 45
Figure 15:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline for Oncology by Stage of Development, Molecule Type and Program Type, 2016 46
Figure 16:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline for Key Oncology Indications by Stage of Development, 2016 47
Figure 17:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline for Key Oncology Indications by Molecule Type, 2016 48
Figure 18:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline for Oncology by Molecular Target, 2016 50
Figure 19:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline by Mechanism of Action and Stage of Development, 2016 51
Figure 20:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline for Key Oncology Indications by Molecular Target, 2016 52
Figure 21:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development (%), 2006-2016 53
Figure 22:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development and Indication (%), 2006-2016 54
Figure 23:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development and Molecule Type (%), 2006-2016 55
Figure 24:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Stage of Development and Molecular Target (%), 2006-2016 56
Figure 25:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development (months), 2006-2016 57
Figure 26:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Stage of Development and Indication (months), 2006-2016 58
Figure 27:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Stage of Development and Molecule Type (months), 2006-2016 59
Figure 28:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Stage of Development and Molecular Target (months), 2006-2016 60
Figure 29:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development (patients), 2006-2016 61
Figure 30:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development and Indication (participants), 2006-2016 62
Figure 31:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development and Molecule Type (participants), 2006-2016 63
Figure 32:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Size by Stage of Development and Molecular Target (participants), 2006-2016 64
Figure 33:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development (months), 2006-2016 65
Figure 34:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development and Indication (participants), 2006-2016 66
Figure 35:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development and Molecule Type (participants), 2006-2016 67
Figure 36:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Program Size by Stage of Development and Molecular Target (participants), 2006-2016 68
Figure 37:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for neratinib ($m), 2014-2021 70
Figure 38:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for AZD-4736 ($m), 2014-2021 71
Figure 39:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for LY2835219 ($m), 2014-2021 72
Figure 40:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for LEE-011 ($m), 2014-2021 73
Figure 41:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for JNJ-56021927 ($m), 2014-2021 74
Figure 42:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for Tremelimumab ($m), 2014-2021 75
Figure 43:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecast for Margetuximab ($m), 2014-2021 76
Figure 44:  Oncology, Global, Market Size ($bn), 2014-2021 77
Figure 45:  Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Key Products ($bn), 2014-2021 80
Figure 46:  Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Epidermal Growth Factor Receptors ($bn), 2014-2021 82
Figure 47:  Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 4 and 6 ($bn), 2014-2021 83
Figure 48:  Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Programmed Cell Death Protein 1 ($bn), 2014-2021 84
Figure 49:  Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for VEGF Inhibitors ($bn), 2014-2021 84
Figure 50:  Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for ALK Tyrosine Kinase Receptor ($bn), 2014-2021 85
Figure 51:  Oncology, Global, Annual Revenue Forecast for Androgen Receptor ($bn), 2014-2021 86
Figure 52:  Oncology Therapeutics Market, Global, Forecast Market Share by Company (%), 2014-2021 89
Figure 53:  Oncology, Global, Companies by Compound Annual Growth Rate (%), 2014-2021 90
Figure 54:  Oncology, Global, Revenues by Product Type, 2014-2021 91
Figure 55:  Oncology, Global, Roche Oncology Annual Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2014-2021 92
Figure 56:  Oncology, Global, Novartis AG Annual Revenue Forecast ($m), 2014-2021 93
Figure 57:  Oncology, Global, Bristol-Myers Annual Revenue Forecast ($m), 2014-2021 94
Figure 58:  Oncology, Global, Pfizer Annual Revenue Forecast ($m), 2014-2021 95
Figure 59:  Oncology, Astellas Annual Revenue Forecast ($m), 2014-2021 96
Figure 60:  Oncology, Amgen Annual Revenue Forecast ($m), 2014-2021 97
Figure 61:  Oncology, Global, Companies by Type, 2014-2021 98
Figure 62:  Oncology, Global, Pipeline, High-Activity and Late-Stage Developers by Level of Non-Haematological Cancer Specialization, 2014-2021 99
Figure 63:  Oncology, Global, Proportion of Total Company Revenue Attributed to Non-Haematological Cancer, 2014-2021 100
Figure 64:  Oncology, Global, Licensing Deals, 2006-2016 102
Figure 65:  Oncology, Global, Licensing Deals by Indication and Value, 2006-2016 103
Figure 66:  Oncology, Global, Licensing Deals, 2006-2016 104
Figure 67:  Oncology, Global, Licensing Deals by Molecule Type and Mechanism of Action, 2006-2016 105
Figure 68:  Oncology, Global, Co-development Deals, 2006-2016 113
Figure 69:  Oncology, Global, Co-development Deals by Indication and Value, 2006-2016 114
Figure 70:  Oncology, Global, Co-development Deals, 2006-2016 115
Figure 71:  Oncology, Global, Co-development Deals by Molecule Type and Mechanism of Action, 2006-2016 116 



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