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Childrenswear Retailing in the UK | Verdict Sector Report; Market size, strategic issues and competitive outlook

Published: Jan 31, 2016 | Pages: 111 | Publisher: Verdict Financial | Industry: Retail | Report Format: Electronic (PDF)

Summary
The childrenswear market is set to grow by 2.8% in 2015; the same level of growth achieved in 2014, and only very gradual. The composition of growth is now very different from 10 years ago, when very rapid price deflation of 4.0% drove a 7.5% rise in volume. Inflation is easing, at just 0.1% in 2015 following a period of rising sourcing costs, ensuring that growth is now becoming more organic, with volume growth of 2.7% forecast for 2015. However, while value growth in the childrenswear market has recovered to pre-recession levels, volume growth has not as parents continue to purchase more carefully - a shift we saw throughout the downturn, which we expect to see maintained. Key Findings
- The tween and young teen markets represent the biggest opportunity in the UK childrenswear sector for retailers to exploit over the next five years, given they are the fastest growing children's population segments to 2020 and yet there is currently little competition specifically targeting this audience. Retailers must concentrate on tailored ranges, appropriately interpreted fashion trends and focused marketing and social media initiatives in order to take advantage - Over 50% of school uniform shoppers are prepared to spend more on school uniform items if they are designed with technical attributes such as easy iron, scuff resistant (shoes), adjustable waists and stain-resistant fabric. As a standard offer, most retailers now provide permanent pleating and Teflon coating to prevent stains, but more premium features such as non-iron and scuff resistant coating on shoes would allow them to have a more tiered price architecture - encouraging trading up and higher spend per head. - Despite the largest proportion of childrenswear retailers being positioned in the midmarket, such as Gap Kids, MandS and Next, there is considerable polarisation in the market, with retailers in the value and premium sectors performing well, which is ultimately resulting in midmarket retailers being squeezed. The midmarket is trying to fight back with greater emphasis on value ranges such as Mother care's Value Essentials range, striving to offer shoppers lower prices but maintain quality, providing a differentiator to value retailers. Synopsis
The UK childrenswear market 2010-2020 offers a comprehensive insight into the factors driving the market, the inhibitors, the major players performance, the main trends and consumer attitudes. It also forecasts to 2020. It provides in-depth analysis of the following: - The Outlook - Recommendations - Market Size - Market Forecast - Channel Shares - Market Shares - Trends Reasons To Buy
- Understand which categories within childrenswear are forecast to outperform and how you can grow your share of spend in these markets. - Gain a better understanding on consumer shopping habits for back to school clothing, which retailers are most popular and how frequently back to school products are purchased, to enable you to better compete in this lucrative market. - Gain knowledge of the strategies for tapping into the Tween market which is due to be the fastest growing segment of childrenswear - Identify the opportunities to grow business in this sector by comparing strategies of the key players in the market and their performance metrics
 Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Key findings Outlook Childrenswear spending growth to reach 2.8% in 2015 Deflation set to return, boosting volumes further Fall in the birth rate hits younger childrenswear in the short term Value players set to gain share but their advance will slow Back to school market highly price competitive but quality to become more important Online childrenswear market grows by 17.1% in 2014 to reach£682m Online to account for four fifths of childrenswear growth in next five years Demographic trends set to boost the tween clothing market Mini-me trend given further impetus by social media Recommendations Focus online proposition on maximising customer convenience Cater for more leisurely online shoppers as well Make the most of the overlap between online and offline channels Develop quality perceptions in back to school to sidestep price rivalry Target the demand for second hand retailing Restructure ranges to take advantage of demographic trends toward tweens Build spend per head in lower age bands to counteract 2013 fall in birth rates Table of Contents Table of Figures List of Tables Market Size Market definition and analysis Clothing market summary Womenswear outperforms all sectors between 2010 and 2015, but this is set to change Childrenswear in context of the clothing market Spend on childrenswear rises£518m in five years to 2015 Most resilient clothing sector by volumes Subsector performance Market price segmentation Market dominated by fashion-focused clothing retailers Expenditure breakdown of childrenswear market Spend per head Additional£8.87 spent on childrenswear in 2015 Market Forecast Childrenswear Expenditure Trends Childrenswear to underperform all other clothing sectors Market segmentation Value share will grow the most over the next five years Subsector performance Girlswear Boyswear Infantswear Spend per head £35 rise in spend per head forecast Infantswear drives spend per head Quarterly expenditure forecasts 2014 2015 2016/17 Deflation returns in Q1 2016 Channel Shares Clothing specialists and grocers gain ground Childrenswear specialists remain under pressure Slow Mother care recovery and specialists' fight against the grocers and clothing players lead to further share declines Growing offers from smaller grocers Morrisons, Aldi and Lidl support grocers' share of spend Despite gains from Amazon, the demise of mail order specialists leads to general merchandisers' fall Online and offline Convenience will drive online across all channels Market Shares Childrenswear market shares Next forecast to grow childrenswear share, maintaining lead and impacting MandS and Matalan Primark closes in on market leader Next Winners and losers Matalan loses share as poor womenswear collections lead to weaker childrenswear footfall Key operating statistics Sainsbury's drives densities via modern shop fits and attractive visual merchandising Space versus sales growth Sales densities Trends Relevant Product Essential For Teen Market Success Population growth Competitive landscape Product development Babywear Birth rates projected to rise in five years to 2020 Average age of mothers is increasing, boosting spend per head Broad choice and a price-competitive offer ensure grocers remain popular among parents Specialists must find a point of differentiation to regain lost ground Midmarket womenswear players foray into babywear Midmarket players must capitalise on gifting to drive spend School Uniform Shopping Habits While competitive prices are crucial, quality is more important Consumer willingness to pay more for technical design features bodes well for retailers Non-traditional players tap into school uniform market Online now a major channel for uniform shopping Shopper profile Shopper spend Online share of spend Shopper frequency Drivers of spend Valued technical attributes in school uniform Retailers visited Items purchased Retailer shares of items purchased Items purchased by retailer Top July findings Top August findings Top September findings Online Growth To Add Nearly£100m To Market In 2014 Pace of growth slows but is still rapid Value segment still lags behind midmarket and premium sectors Childrenswear online does not appeal as much as womenswear and menswear ABC1s dominate socioeconomic profile of online childrenswear shoppers Women and 25-44s are the main purchasers Drivers of Spend Price still important in buying online Online sales channels Nearly half spend under 30 minutes browsing before buying Appendix Methodology Childrenswear market size and forecast methodology Childrenswear retailer market share methodology Clothing sales density methodology Childrenswear spend per head methodology Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Childrenswear market definition, 2015 Table 2: Summary of clothing sectors, 2015e Table 3: Childrenswear market value (£m) and growth drivers (%), 2005-15e Table 4: Childrenswear sales breakdown and trends in context of clothing (£m), 2005-15e Table 5: Girlswear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e Table 6: Boyswear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e Table 7: Infantswear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e Table 8: Childrenswear expenditure (£m) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e Table 9: Childrenswear channels of distribution expenditure (£m) and share (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e Table 10: Specialist and clothing specialist childrenswear market shares (%), 2010-15e Table 11: Non-specialist childrenswear market shares (%), 2010-15e Table 12: Childrenswear retailers' key UK operating statistics, 2014/15e and 2015/16e Table 13: Purchased items at the leading school uniform retailers (%), 2015


List of Figures
Figure 1: Sector shares of the clothing market (%), 2010 and 2015e Figure 2: Childrenswear expenditure (£bn) and year-on-year change (%), 2005-15e Figure 3: Childrenswear inflation/deflation, volume and value growth (%), 2005-15e Figure 4: Childrenswear positioning map, 2014 Figure 5: Mother care Value Essentials range, July 2014 Figure 6: River Island childrenswear edit, July 2014 Figure 7: Childrenswear expenditure breakdown (%), 2009 and 2014e Figure 8: Tesco TV childrenswear advert emphasizing added value features, 2014 Figure 9: Childrenswear spend per head (£), 2010-15e Figure 10: Spend per head in childrenswear, girlswear, boyswear and infantswear (£), 2005 and 2015e Figure 11: Childrenswear expenditure (£bn) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e Figure 12: Childrenswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e Figure 13: Childrenswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e Figure 14: Childrenswear expenditure breakdown (%), 2009, 2014e and 2019e Figure 15: Girlswear expenditure (£m) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e Figure 16: Girlswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e Figure 17: Girlswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e Figure 18: Boyswear expenditure (£m) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e Figure 19: Boyswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e Figure 20: Boyswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e Figure 21: Infantswear expenditure (£m) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e Figure 22: Infantswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e Figure 23: Infantswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e Figure 24: Births in Great Britain, numbers and year-on-year change (%), 2003-13 Figure 25: Childrenswear spend per head (£), 2015e-20e Figure 26: Spend per head on total childrenswear, girlswear, boyswear, infantswear (£), 2015e and 2020e Figure 27: Childrenswear sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e Figure 28: Childrenswear versus clothing and footwear year-on-year change (%), quarterly, 2013-17e Figure 29: Childrenswear channel shares (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e Figure 30: Childrenswear channel expenditure growth (%), 2020e on 2015e Figure 31: Change in childrenswear channel share (percentage point), 2015-20e Figure 32: Online and offline shares of childrenswear (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e Figure 33: Childrenswear top 15 - childrenswear market shares (%), 2010 and 2015e Figure 34: Childrenswear top 15 - childrenswear winners and losers (percentage points), 2015e on 2014 Figure 35: Childrenswear retailers' UK space growth versus sales growth (%), 2015/16e Figure 36: Clothing sales densities (£/sq ft), 2014/15 and 2015/16e Figure 37: Change in numbers of children by age group (%), 2015-20 Figure 38: Positioning map of retailers targeting teens, 2015 Figure 39: Current teen influencers' sense of style is more aligned with adult fashion, 2015 Figure 40: Topshop dresses available in a size 4, December 2015 Figure 41: River Island Girls range, December 2015 Figure 42: Babaluno's nautical inspired collection at Tesco, 2015 Figure 43: Mother care's baby advice forum, 2015 Figure 44: Zara's trendy displays with outfit suggestions and stylised photo shoots, 2015 Figure 45: John Lewis's Christmas babywear range, 2015 Figure 46: MandS boys school shirts, 2015 Figure 47: Profile of school uniform shoppers by gender and age group (%), 2015 Figure 48: School uniform shoppers who bought uniform for a particular age group (%), 2015 Figure 49: Shopper spend on school uniform (%), 2015 Figure 50: Online share of school uniform expenditure (%), 2015 Figure 51: Frequency of shopping trips for school uniform purchases (%), 2015 Figure 52: Importance of drivers when choosing where to purchase school uniform (%), 2015 Figure 53: Important technical attributes in school uniform (%), 2015 Figure 54: Most shopped school uniform retailers (%), 2015 Figure 55: Top 10 most shopped school uniform retailers by gender (%), 2015 Figure 56: Top five most shopped school uniform retailers by age group (%), 2015 Figure 57: Purchased school uniform items (%), 2015 Figure 58: School uniform items purchased at Asda (%), 2015 Figure 59: School uniform items purchased at Bhs (%), 2015 Figure 60: School uniform items purchased at Clarks (%), 2015 Figure 61: School uniform items purchased at MandS (%), 2015 Figure 62: School uniform items purchased at Matalan (%), 2015 Figure 63: School uniform items purchased at Next (%), 2015 Figure 64: School uniform items purchased at Primark (%), 2015 Figure 65: School uniform items purchased at Sainsbury's (%), 2015 Figure 66: School uniform items purchased at Tesco (%), 2015 Figure 67: Online childrenswear expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-15e Figure 68: Socioeconomic profile of online childrenswear shoppers (%), 2014 Figure 69: Penetration of online clothing shoppers for childrenswear by gender, age and socioeconomic group (%), 2014 Figure 70: Age profile of online childrenswear shoppers (%), 2014 Figure 71: Main drivers of childrenswear online spend (%), 2014 Figure 72: Delivery methods used by online childrenswear buyers (%), 2014 Figure 73: Browsing time before purchasing childrenswear online (%), 2014 Figure 74: Devices used when buying childrenswear online (%), 2014 Figure 75: Online childrenswear expenditure (£m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2015-20e

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